2009 Hurricane Prediction Suggests Above Average Activity

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University are predicting above-average activity in the Atlantic next year: 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes—three major.

The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes. Researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say in their extended-range forecast today that there is a 63 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

This is Gray’s 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say such long-range forecasts don’t have a lot of practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.